By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, June 16, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us. It is hard to believe, but almost half of 2017 has already passed us by, so let’s get caught up on the Big Bear real estate market.

Demand Remains Strong…

In the first five months of 2017 (Jan - May) There were 474 closed residential sales here in Big Bear vs. 417 closings over the same period in 2016. That equates to an impressive 13.7% increase in closed sales so far this year. The month of May itself (116 in 2017 vs 85 in 2016) saw an extraordinary 36% increase in residential sales. Certainly, a remarkable start to the year. In fact, we have not seen this number of closings in the first five months of any year since 2008.

… And Has Kept Pace with Rising Supply

Furthermore, while the supply of homes for sale in Big Bear is on the rise -- as of June 8th, there were 471 active residential listings vs. 379 on April 17th, a seasonal increase in supply that is par-for-the-course for this time of year -- the increase in demand has so far kept pace. Based on the number of homes currently in escrow (176) and given a typical 45-day closing period, we still have a 4-month supply of homes on the market. So, even with the recent increase in number of listings, we are still looking at a “seller’s market.” It will be interesting to see, given the dramatic number of new listings currently coming to market, if this trend of demand keeping pace with increasing supply will continue to hold. At the current rate of increase I expect supply to gradually outpace demand. By mid-July and into August, I expect we will see closer to 6 months of inventory on the market, which, by definition, would be more of a “balanced” market. It looks doubtful to me that we will see a “buyer’s market” this year, where supply edges into the 7- to 8-month range. Stay tuned, and we shall see.

Composition of Closed Sales

Of note on the closed sale side: 23% of those deals were cash. From a percentage perspective, Fox Farm (up 68.2%) and Moonridge (up 39.1%) saw the biggest increase in number of sales. And it is interesting to see that 5% (which equates to 26 vs. basically 0 a few years back) of our “Active” inventory is either “New” or “Under Construction.” It is certainly good to see some building underway. If you would like info on the new log-style homes being built, or any others for sale here in Big Bear, do let us know.

Average Price Holds at over $300K

The average price of all residential homes sold Jan-May 2017 was $305,961, making this the first year in almost 10 years to see an average price holding at over $300,000. So far this year (Jan-May 2017 vs. Jan-May 2016), the average price of all homes sold has increased a total of 2.4%. So, the appreciation in the Big Bear real estate market, although evident, remains slow and steady (a.k.a. solid and healthy) making this summer a great time to buy or sell in Big Bear.

Changing Interest Rate Environment

It is impossible to predict the future, but the Fed just raised their short-term Fed-Funds rate another .25% (the 3rd increase in the last 6 months) and they have stated that they intend to see that rate (currently between 1%-1.25%) at 3% in 2019. If these short-term rate increases translate into the longer-term bond and mortgage markets (which they typically do), we could see 30-year fixed mortgage rates at or pushing 6% in 2019 (vs. the rock bottom 4% or under at present). Seems to me to be a good time to lock in a great rate on the right piece of real estate in Big Bear. Whether you’re interested in buying or looking to sell, we look forward to hearing from you regarding how we can help. Thanks, and until next time: All the Best and Happy Hunting.

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, April 17, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us on Big Bear’s unique, resort real estate market. The first quarter of 2017 is in the books, so let’s take a look at what has transpired in Q1 of 2017.

The Big Bear real estate market started strong in 2017 as the 86 residential closings we saw this January were the most sold in the month of January in over 10 years. But now that the ski season has passed, the market has slowed a bit. Tax time is notoriously slow in Big Bear, but that too shall pass.

The total number of residential sales in the first quarter of 2017 (vs. the same period in 2016) increased 1.6% (254 in 2017 vs. 250 in 2016). Certain areas of Big Bear saw more dramatic increases:  Fox Farm for example had 80% more sales Jan-March 2017 vs 2016 (18 in 2017 vs. 10 in 2016). Whereas, other areas, i.e. Sugarloaf, saw significantly less activity (28.6% fewer sales in 2017 vs. 2016).

While the bulk of the sales remain under $500,000, it is encouraging to see the growing demand for higher priced properties as well.  These charts show first quarter sales in different areas and also in different price ranges.

Demand for homes in Big Bear overall has been healthy. In fact, the pace of new listings coming to market has not been able to keep up, as we currently have only 365 active listings on our Big Bear MLS and 162 homes currently in-escrow. Which, based on a typical 45-day closing period, equates to only 3.4 months of supply (a.k.a. seller’s market).  That said, late spring and early summer is typically a time where we expect to see a lot more inventory coming to market. It will be interesting to see if the demand in the market will continue to absorb it or if, more likely, we will see the number of active listings climb towards the 500 mark by mid-July. Based on what the first quarter of 2017 has shown us, I do expect this summer to be solid season for sales here in Big Bear.

The average price of all residential homes in Big Bear sold in the first quarter of 2017 (vs. Q1 2016) showed a substantial increase of 4.1% ($314,059 in 2017 vs. $301,603 in 2016) - An impressive start to the year indeed. And although, as mentioned above, the number of sales in Sugarloaf decreased 28.6%, the average price paid there increased 15%. When the number of sales suddenly declines after an extended period of substantial price appreciation, this often indicates that we may be approaching a ceiling.

Let me know if you have been considering selling, or if you would simply like to know what your property is currently worth.  Listing in early spring does provide the opportunity to stand out, as there is not too much competition on the market to deal with (yet). If you have any questions on the market or regarding any properties you see for sale here in Big Bear, do let us know.  We look forward to hearing from you. Until next time, all the best!

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, March 2, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us regarding the Big Bear real estate market. It is hard to believe, but the first quarter of 2017 is already more than half way complete. So let’s get caught up on what has been happening with Big Bear’s unique real estate market shall we?

January Marked a Strong Start to 2017

January in Big Bear has historically been a month where we see sales begin to slow, as there are typically fewer homes on the market in the winter months as well as fewer home buyers in the market.  January 2017, however, seems to have bucked this trenBig Bear Real Estate: January Residential Closingsd as there were 86 residential closings as compared to 66 in January 2016, an incredible 30.3% increase! In fact, the 86 closings we saw this January are the most sales we have seen in the month of January in over 10 years.

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By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, December 14, 2016

Thanks for checking in with us on the Big Bear real estate market. This year has seemingly flown by once again. With the holiday season right around the corner, let’s get caught up on the happenings in Big Bear’s unique resort market.

Residential Sales Relatively Flat, Shift to Higher Price Continues

2016 has been a solid year for real estate in Big Bear. The number of residential sales overall (Jan-Nov 2016 vs. the same period last year) was relatively unchanged,Big Bear Real Estate - Sales by areaBig Bear Real Estate: Sales by Price Range posting a slight decrease of 1% with 1,074 closings in 2016 vs. 1,085 in 2015.

It is interesting to note the distribution of sales in the different areas of Big Bear as well as in different price ranges. The trend we have seen, where the bulk of the demand is moving up from the $0 - $250k price range and into the $250k - $500k price range, is still very much in effect. In fact, 3 years ago, 65% off all residential sales occurred under $250k (and 28% were between $250k -$500k,) whereas now 49% are under $250k and 42% are in the $250k-$500k range. ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, November 23, 2016

First off, all of us at The Mike Sannes Real Estate Team would like to wish you and yours a fantastic Thanksgiving holiday. Thanksgiving is an amazing and truly American holiday that brings together family and friends to give thanks and celebrate the many blessings for which we are all grateful. Family, friends, great food and football, who could not be grateful for that! We hope you all enjoy a wonderful holiday weekend!! ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, October 9, 2016

Thanks for checking in with us regarding the Big Bear real estate market. Let’s get right to it.

The 3rd quarter of 2016 is now in the books, so let’s take a look at the current "state of the market" as we prepare to slide into winter. There are currently 527 active residential listings on our Big Bear MLS and, as there are 197 homes currently in escrow, that equates to 4 months of inventory based on a typical 45 day closing.

My How Times Have Changed

The days of the ‘distressed market’ in Big Bear have passed: only 1.3% of our active inventory is ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, September 23, 2016

The long warm days of summer have recently transitioned into chilly (more like freezing) mornings here in Big Bear. But the Big Bear real estate market is not showing any signs of cooling off as we head into Fall. Thanks for checking in with us on the Big Bear real estate market. Let’s get caught up on what transpired in our unique resort market this summer, and look at what that indicates about what we can expect going forward.

Number of Homes Sold Down a Slight 3.1% ...

Through August of this year (as compared to the same time frame last year), the total number of residential properties that changed hands decreased slightly: Down 3.1% (720 closed Jan-Aug ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, June 18, 2016

Hello from beautiful Big Bear Lake and thanks for checking in with us regarding the Big Bear real estate market. Summer is here and, as the first half of 2016 has literally flown by, let’s get caught up on the happenings in Big Bear’s unique resort market.

Big Bear’s real estate market is primarily driven by vacation home and 2nd home buyers, but as with all markets, supply and demand certainly still influence price.

On the Supply Side

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By Mike Sannes, March 10, 2016

Thanks for checking in with us regarding the Big Bear real estate market. Let’s take a look at the start of 2016.

Residential Sales by AreaResidential sales in Big Bear jumped 3.2% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, and 6.5% year-over-year. A boost in sales in Big Bear City (up 43.8% compared to January 2015) contributed the bulk of this increase. In January, 66 homes closed escrow up from 62 in January of 2015. However, January 2016 sales are down 43% from December 2015, when 115 homes closed escrow. That said, it is typical for sales to slow in the winter months here in Big Bear. ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, February 26, 2016

As 2016 is now well underway, let’s catch up on what transpired in the Big Bear real estate market last year and what that tells us about what to expect for 2016.

Big Bear Real Estate - Monthly Residential Sales
Monthly Residential Sales in Big Bear Valley

The real estate market in Big Bear fared well in 2015. We saw a surge in demand as, aside from January and October, every month of 2015 saw more residential closed sales than the same month a year prior.

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