2017 Posts

Q3 Market Update by Mike SannesBig Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, October 10, 2017

"Wow" is one of the first words that comes to mind when looking at what transpired in the 3rd quarter in Big Bear's real estate market. Historically, the 3rd quarter is always the busiest of any given year, but this year... wow.

From January through July 2017, when compared to the same period in 2016, the Big Bear real estate market realized a 15.7% increase in total number of residential sales and a 2.3% gain in average sale price. This certainly qualifies as a solid result for the first seven months of the year. However, when adding August and September into the mix, we see that homes sales surged 21.9% from January through September vs 2016 and the change in the average price more than doubled to an overall 5.1% increase. In fact, the 161 closed sales in September 2017 are the most we have seen in any month in over 12 years.

Absorption Rate measures the "speed of the market" and the Big Bear Real Estate market is flying into Fall.

Demand in the Big Bear real estate market has gained an impressive amount of momentum as we head into the Holiday Season. Multiple offer situations on desirable new listings are much more prevalent now than at any time this year. Buyers were snapping up new inventory at a stunning pace in September and into October. We currently have 408 active residential listings on our Big Bear MLS, down from the peak of 534 in July. There are currently 236 homes in escrow and, based on a typical 45-day closing period, this equates to a scarce 2.6 months of supply. Absorption Rate (# of homes in-escrow / # of active listings) is a simple metric that illustrates demand and the absorption rate is currently an incredible 54% -- meaning over half the active inventory is being "absorbed," ie. purchased, every month.

If we are to think of Absorption Rate as the "speed" of the market, then the Big Bear real estate market is flying into Fall.   (See the chart below to reference supply and Absorption Absorption Rate, as of 9/30/2017Rate throughout the year. Note the dramatic increase in properties in-escrow in September and October.)

The moral of the story: if you were considering selling your Big Bear property this year, but were feeling that you may have missed the "prime-time" season to list, you didn’t.

With current inventory under 3 months of supply and demand surging, it is a good time to take advantage of this strong "seller’s market" while it lasts. Do let me know if you would like the current market value of your Big Bear home (much more accurate than Zestimates or any other automated valuation systems.)

Sales up Across all Areas and all Price Ranges

Sales by AreaA few more interesting market numbers: The total number of sales (Jan-Sep 2017 vs 2016) as mentioned above, is up 21.9%, but the number of sales in Moonridge is up 57.2% (217 in 2017 vs 138 in 2016).

Sales by price rangeThe number of sales in the price range between $750,000 - $999,000 (which has been slow in recent years) is up 91% (21 in 2017 vs 11 in 2016).  Furthermore, although the average price in Big bear is up 5.1% Jan-Sep, the average price in Sugarloaf is up 13.5% so far this year.

 

Let us know if you have any questions on the market, on anything you see for sale here, or on your homes current value. We look forward to hearing from you. Until next time: All the best and happy hunting!

Q2 Market Update by Mike SannesBig Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, July 13, 2017

Thanks for checking in with us regarding the real estate market in sunny Big Bear Lake CA. The 2nd Quarter of 2017 is now "in-the-books," so let’s catch up on the happenings in the Big Bear real estate market, shall we?

The Sales Story is One of Healthy Demand

Big Bear Real Estate - Sales by Area - June 2017The story so far in 2017 has been one of healthy demand for Big Bear vacation homes. The total number of residential sales from January through June 2017 vs. the same period in 2016 increased a substantial 14.2% (596 in 2017 vs. 522 in 2016). Moonridge and Fox Farm were the areas that saw the lion's share of this growth in sales with a 37.9% rise in Moonridge (120 in 2017 vs. 87 in 2016) and an incredible 55.6% increase in the Fox Farm area of Big Bear (42 in 2017 vs. 27 in 2016). Check out our website for more information and to see properties available in these and other popular areas.

Big Bear Real Estate - Sales by Price Range - June 2017Also interesting to note is that the distribution of sales in different prices ranges has changed dramatically. In the past, it has been the price range of $0 - $250,000 and more recently also that of $250,000 – $500,000 that have benefited most from the boost in number of sales. So far this year however, the price range of $500,000 - $750,000 is up 30% (39 sold Jan-June in 2017 vs 30 in 2016) and the price range between $750,000 - $999,000 has seen a whopping 166.7% surge (16 sold 2017 vs 6 in 2016).  To search for properties by price or area, visit the Simply Search page on our website.

With so many more properties changing hands this year than last, to what can we attribute this considerable increase in demand? While interest rates are currently still at historically low levels, they have been on the rise of late and experts predict to see a 5.5% - 6% rate on 30-year fixed mortgages by the end of 2019.  So, many are looking to buy now and lock in a great rate on an awesome vacation home in Big Bear. That, coupled with increased optimism about Big Bear’s potential for growth (with our two local ski resorts being recently purchased by Aspen Ski Co.), seems to have brought a lot of would-be buyers off the fence and into escrow in the first half of 2017, which is really good news for all concerned.

Prices Have Also Been on the Rise

Big Bear Real Estate - Average Sales Price - June 2017The average price of all residential homes sold January – June 2017 vs. the same period of 2016 has increased 4.9% (from $296,775 in 2016 to $311,298 in 2017). This price appreciation in Big Bear, although slow and steady as compared to many areas, has certainly been bringing more sellers to the market. But so far anyway, demand has been able to keep pace and absorb most of this new supply. Even though we currently have 553 Active listings (vs. 379 in the middle of April), based on the number of homes currently in escrow and on a typical 45-day closing period, this equates to a 4.8 month supply (up from 3.8 months in April). Keep in mind that 6 months of supply is considered a "balanced market"; whereas, 8 months of supply is considered a strong "buyers-market" and 4 months and below a strong "sellers- market."

As the year continues, it will be very interesting to see if a rising number of Big Bear buyers scoop up enough homes to keep up with the expanding inventory. Or if not, perhaps the later part of 2017 will evolve into more of a "buyers market." Stay tuned, as we will keep you posted and do let us know if you have any questions on the market, on anything you see for sale here, or on your homes current value. We are happy to help and look forward to hearing from you. Until next time: All the best and happy hunting!

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, June 16, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us. It is hard to believe, but almost half of 2017 has already passed us by, so let’s get caught up on the Big Bear real estate market.

Demand Remains Strong…

In the first five months of 2017 (Jan - May) There were 474 closed residential sales here in Big Bear vs. 417 closings over the same period in 2016. That equates to an impressive 13.7% increase in closed sales so far this year. The month of May itself (116 in 2017 vs 85 in 2016) saw an extraordinary 36% increase in residential sales. Certainly, a remarkable start to the year. In fact, we have not seen this number of closings in the first five months of any year since 2008. ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, April 17, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us on Big Bear’s unique, resort real estate market. The first quarter of 2017 is in the books, so let’s take a look at what has transpired in Q1 of 2017.

The Big Bear real estate market started strong in 2017 as the 86 residential closings we saw this January were the most sold in the month of January in over 10 years. But now that the ski season has passed, the market has slowed a bit. Tax time is notoriously slow in Big Bear, but that too shall pass. ...continue reading

By Mike Sannes, Big Bear Real Estate - The Mike Sannes Team, March 2, 2017

Hello and thanks for checking in with us regarding the Big Bear real estate market. It is hard to believe, but the first quarter of 2017 is already more than half way complete. So let’s get caught up on what has been happening with Big Bear’s unique real estate market shall we?

January Marked a Strong Start to 2017

January in Big Bear has historically been a month where we see sales begin to slow, as there are typically fewer homes on the market in the winter months as well as fewer home buyers in the market.  January 2017, however, seems to have bucked this trenBig Bear Real Estate: January Residential Closingsd as there were 86 residential closings as compared to 66 in January 2016, an incredible 30.3% increase! In fact, the 86 closings we saw this January are the most sales we have seen in the month of January in over 10 years.

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